CommonErrors
Case Background
Several years of teaching workshops has led to a new illness being observed among health economists. As revealed by new research by the pioneering decision scientist, Dr. Grooves, this new disease is a consequence of the enduring sadness that results from the workshop being over. This condition has come to be called the Brief Yearning Episode (commonly abbreviated to BYE). Our team has exclusive access to data on the natural history of BYE.
These data were gathered from an observational study that followed a cohort of 30-year old students for 3 years. At the start of the study, 60% have Mild BYE and 40% were healthy.
BYE is associated with reduced quality of life. The utility weight for Mild BYE is 0.88 and the utility weight for Severe BYE in 0.65, whereas individuals without BYE have a utility of 1.0.
Everyone represented in the model faces age-specific background mortality, which can be based on the provided life table. Individuals with BYE have a risk of dying from sadness. Mild cases have a 1.4% annual probability of dying from sadness and severe cases have a 4.21% annual probability of dying.
The data also suggested that healthy individuals that survive background mortality have a 40.71% chance of developing BYE within a year of the workshop. Among individuals newly developing BYE, 80% have Mild BYE and the rest have Severe BYE.
It has been estimated that 30% of the individuals with Mild progressed to Severe over a 3-year period. Individuals with Mild BYE can fully recover and return to the Well state, with an annual probability of 7%, conditional on surviving to the end of the year.
Patients with Severe BYE have a 10.5% annual probability of returning to the Mild state. Individuals with Severe BYE cannot return directly to the Well state.
Individuals who recover from previous episodes of BYE face the same risk of developing the condition again as those who have not yet had BYE.
To treat BYE, the only solution is a beach holiday. For mild cases, a $3,000 trip per year is required and for severe cases, a $9,000 trip is required. It is recommended that patients moving from mild to severe, have a one-time treatment at progression of upgrading to a private jet for $35,000.
A similar disease CYA that is seen in economic workshops but has slightly more expensive treatment and slightly worse outcomes has been found to cost about $100,000 per person and result in 10 QALYs.
Dr. Grooves develop a 5-state Markov model: (1) Well, (2) Mild, (3) Severe, (4) Disease Death and (4) [All Cause] Death based on the data provided above. He said he used a 3% discounting rate for both costs and QALYs and half-cycle correction on the model. All costs were converted into the same year. He is hoping to find the life-time impacts of BYE.
He also provided you some results from other papers that he think you could use to help understand your results.
Figure 3: Incremental Cost-Effectiveness of Varies Strategies to Improve the BYE Endemic in A Nearby Region
| Strategy | Cost (Dis) | QALYs (Dis) | Inc. Cost | Inc. QALYs | ICER |
| No Treatment | $78,620 | 11.56 | - | - | - |
| Screen then Treat | $103,245 | 10.18 | $24,625 | -1.38 | -$17,844.20 |
| Treatment | $107,989 | 13.45 | $4,744 | 3.27 | $1,450.76 |
FAKE SOURCE: Morrison, K., García-Rodriguez, M., & Okonkwo, A. (2024). Economic evaluation of BYE prevention and treatment programs: Evidence from a multi-country cohort study. International Journal of Medical Decision Making, 18(2), 156-173.
Figure 8: Incremental Cost-Effectiveness of Varies Strategies to Improve the BYE Endemic in Another Region
| Strategy | Cost (Dis) | QALYs (Dis) | Inc. Cost | Inc. QALYs | ICER |
| No Treatment | $86,340 | 12.35 | - | - | - |
| Screen then Treat | $107,650 | 13.79 | $21,310 | 1.44 | $14,799 |
| Treatment | $109,145 | 14.08 | $22,805 | 1.73 | $13,182 |
FAKE SOURCE: Patel, R., Chen, L., & Nakamura, T. (2023). Cost-effectiveness analysis of intervention strategies for Brief Yearning Episode in Southeast Asian populations. Journal of Health Economics and Decision Science, 45(3), 287-301
Our team has been very busy getting this workshop ready so we are asking that you please review the model that he started for errors.
Thank you!